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For some, race to 90 per cent more a dawdle

Brittney Deguara

The race is on for regions around the country to reach the 90 per cent fully vaccinated target. But despite national campaigns prompting more people to roll up their sleeves and get the Covid-19 jab, some regions are falling behind.

Overall, based on Ministry of Health data (as at 11.59pm on Sunday), 87 per cent of the eligible population over the age of 12 has had one dose, while 71 per cent are fully vaccinated. That leaves 16 per cent yet to come back for their second shot.

Professor Mick Roberts, a Massey University infectious disease modeller, thinks there’s a good chance those still to get their second jab will come back.

‘‘The cases turning up mid-north and South Islands will also – probably – help persuade some hesitants to take the plunge.’’

This proved true in Nelson at the weekend where, after a case was confirmed in Blenheim, hundreds of walk-ins visited vaccination clinics. By Sunday afternoon, Nelson Bays Primary Health had administered 625 vaccinations, 309 of these were first doses.

Let’s cast our eye over the national data to see what the vaccination rates look like around the country.

First doses

Data from the Ministry of Health shows Auckland and Waitematā DHBS are leading the charge with first doses – reaching 93 per cent and 90 per cent, respectively, of the eligible population partially vaccinated.

Auckland marked that milestone at the weekend, with Immunisation Advisory Centre (IMAC) director Professor Nikki Turner saying, at the time, this showed handing the roll-out to communities to organise was working.

Capital and Coast DHB has also performed well with 91 per cent of people having received their first dose.

Most other DHBS are hovering between 80 per cent and 90 per cent first dose coverage – Canterbury and South Canterbury has 89 per cent and 84 per cent coverage, respectively.

Five DHBS are yet to crack the 80 per cent mark for first doses.

On that list is Tairāwhiti with just 76 per cent of its eligible population vaccinated with one dose, West Coast and Northland with 78 per cent, and Lakes and Whanganui DHBS with 79 per cent each.

Fully vaccinated

When it comes to second doses and full vaccination coverage, Auckland is once again at the top of the list. The DHB has vaccinated 81 per cent of its eligible population – 342,646 people.

Waitematā and Capital and

Coast DHBS have 76 per cent of the eligible population fully vaccinated.

Other areas performing well include Southern DHB with 74 per cent coverage, and Nelson Marlborough and Counties Manukau both with 73 per cent. The Bay of Plenty, Northland, West Coast, Whanganui and Canterbury are yet to surpass 70 per cent full coverage with 63 per cent, 62 per cent, 63 per cent, 65 per cent, and 67 per cent, respectively.

The DHBS with the lowest fully

vaccinated rates are Tairāwhiti with 61 per cent, and Taranaki and Lakes DHBS recording 62 per cent.

These regions have the most ground to cover to get to 90 per cent fully vaccinated. Tairāwhiti needs 12,318 people (that’s 29.35 per cent of the eligible population) to get the second jab. To reach 90 per cent by Christmas Day, daily vaccinations need to average around 205.

Taranaki and Lakes DHBS need to administer 28,862 and 26,851 jabs to get to 90 per cent coverage – that’s 481 and 447 second jabs a day, on average, to hit the target by Christmas Day.

Auckland’s 90 per cent target is within its grasp. The Government announced once all three DHBS – Auckland,

Waitematā and Counties

Manukau – hit 90 per cent full coverage, the region will transition into the new Covid-19 traffic light framework. The region is just 190,802 second jabs away from reaching that goal – 38,916 (9.18 per cent of the population) in Auckland, 71,486 (13.59 per cent) in Waitematā, and 80,400 (16.65 per cent) in Counties Manukau.

‘We’re doing something right’

Based on the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine and the estimated reproductive value of the Delta variant (R0=6, meaning one case, on average, infects six others), Roberts calculated the latest R-value to sit at 1.74, a few points higher than the 1.2 R-value calculated at the start of the month.

It appears vaccination rates are helping keep the death rate at bay. Roberts said the country’s 28 deaths translate to 5.6 per million of population. In comparison, Australia’s rate is calculated to be 60 per million, Singapore 42 per million, and the UK and US 2042 and 2193 per million.

‘‘If New Zealand had a death rate from Covid of 2000 per million (like UK and USA), that would be 10,000 deaths. That’s the population of Waiheke,’’ Roberts said. ‘‘We are doing something right!’’

National News

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2021-10-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

2021-10-27T07:00:00.0000000Z

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