Conflict to grow if Paris goals missed

Arecent report by the US National Intelligence Council says ‘‘given current government policies and trends in technology development, we judge that collectively countries are unlikely to meet the Paris goals’’, adding, based on the current trajectory, the world will hit 1.5C of warming by 2030 and 2C by 2050.

But their expertise is not related to climate, rather in assessing what the effect will be on international relations.

‘‘Geopolitical tensions are likely to grow as countries increasingly argue about how to accelerate the reductions in net greenhouse gas emissions that will be needed to meet the Paris

Agreement goals,’’ the report says, adding that countries will ‘‘compete to control resources and dominate new technologies needed for the clean energy transition’’.

Furthermore, as global warming intensifies, this is ‘‘likely to exacerbate cross-border geopolitical flashpoints as states take steps to secure their interests’’. It also notes that developing countries will be hit hardest by climate change, increasing ‘‘the potential for instability and possibly internal conflict’’.

So preventing global warming from breaching the 1.5C and 2C targets set by the Paris Agreement is about more than just the weather.