Balance of power has shifted to the north All Blacks 2021 report card

Scott Robertson was an excellent New Zealand under-20s coach, but the loss he suffered in the pool stages of the World Rugby U20 Championship in 2016 was a big pointer to the problems coming down the line for the All Blacks.

Under Robertson, the Baby All Blacks lost 33-24 to Ireland in Manchester, and failed to qualify for the semifinals of the annual tournament.

Fast forward five years later, and three of the players in that Ireland under-20s starting XV (James Ryan, Andrew Porter and Hugo Keenan) had graduated to the test arena, where they would again beat the All Blacks.

Only one player from the starting NZ under-20s side – Jordie Barrett – was in the All Blacks starting side that lost to Ireland in Dublin a few weeks ago.

The power shift to the North has been clearly signposted for at least the past five years, and it’s arguably a bigger factor than the identity of the All Blacks coach.

For the record, Robertson won the 2015 edition of the under-20s tournament, and Craig Philpott led the team to success in 2017.

But since 2013, England have won the competition three times (and made the final another three times), and France have won it twice. In 2018-2019, New Zealand’s best finish was fourth.

What we have seen on European rugby fields over the past few weeks is a combination of many, many factors. But it is undeniable that in terms of player development, the Six Nations sides have caught up with New Zealand, or likely overtaken them. And as that is a structural change, it isn’t likely to go away any time soon.

That 2016 loss to Irelandwould have seemed almost unfathomable in the early years of the under-20s tournament.

From 2008-2011, New Zealand won four titles on the bounce, and coaches Dave Rennie, Russell Hilton-Jones and Mark Anscombe all had 100 per cent records.

But, from 2012 onwards, things became a lot tougher. Robertson’s record from 2015-2016 is very strong, with just one loss, but that defeat to Ireland showed one thing: Not even ‘Razor’ can stop the rest of the world from getting better.

France and England, in particular, have poured time and money into their under-20s programs and women’s rugby, as the Black Ferns have just found out.

Their club systems are pouring out large numbers of ‘professionalised’ young players with a high degree of tactical and technical knowledge, as well as being well conditioned.

Look at the England team that beat South Africa at Twickenham last weekend. The No 10 Marcus Smith is 22, and the fullback Freddie Steward is just 20. There is a sense that New Zealand has fallen back a step. A formalised Super Rugby under-20s competition did not begin until this season, and there is no Rugby Championship under-20s competition to rival the Six Nations under-20s tournament that primes European players.

The All Blacks were disappointing in Dublin and Paris, there is no questioning that. Foster and his coaches must take accountability, particularly the poor starts to each game.

But what really makes good test teams? It’s the structures and systems that sit beneath them, driven by a relentless determination at the institutional level not to take success for granted.

Has New Zealand rugby, in its entirety, got that right over the past 5-10 years? That’s the big, uncomfortable question that should sit alongside the Foster v Robertson debate.

Is this the All Blacks’ 2009 reckoning all over again? The chance to address key issues, make some big calls and strike a new pathway to the promised land. It sure has that look about it after a 2021 campaign that served a grim reminder the men in black no longer bestride the global game.

On the surface it wasn’t all bad, Ian Foster’s men winning 12 of 15 tests in a programme that saw them play the last 10 on the road in 12 weeks. Almost every other nation would snap the hand off anyonewho offered them a record like that.

But this is the All Blacks. They can roll out of bed and win threequarters of their tests. Their bar is set sky-high. The eye test applies just as much as the data one. And they are most certainly not used to being squeezed, manipulated, exposed and challenged as the Springboks, Ireland and France managed during this unprecedented campaign.

Yes, they swept the wobbly Wallabies, made short work of a regressing Argentina side and thumped a Welsh outfit missing over 20 frontliners.

But in the four true tests of the year they went 1-3.

So this was a speedbump, a blip on the graph, awakeup call— there can be no doubt the All Blacks came up short when it mattered in 2021.

The Springboks applied their usual pressure up front, at the set piece and with their line-speed, but also succeeded in taking the New Zealanders to some uncomfortable places with their predictable but deadly accurate high-kick game. What was concerning was how, later, Ireland and France succeeded in outplaying the All Blacks using decidedly different styles.

It is undeniable that in terms of player development, the Six Nations sides have caught up with New Zealand, or likely overtaken them.

The Irish played an effective game of keepaway in Dublin, dominated possession and territory and played the well-rested top All Blacks lineup off the parkwith amix of raw-boned intensity, withering urgency and stunning execution. Their ball-playing props did all but kick sand in their opposites’ faces. The next week at Stade de France

in somany ways, took the New Zealanders on at their own game, played with pace, width, beautiful rhythm and brilliant skill, and left the All Blacks in their dust. All the memories of a splendid test were of men in blue setting the night alight with their daring and dash.

So, a bit to digest, as there had been in 2009 when Graham Henry’s All Blacks hit the metaphorical brick wall, dropping four tests in a problematic campaign (one to France in Dunedin, and three straight to the Springboks) and one to the Barbarians as well.

That year the Boks had exposed key deficiencies under the high ball – effectively ending the test career of Sitiveni Sivivatu – and left Henry facing some harsh realities. But the

Pass or fail?

Just in case he needs a little help, here then is our report card for the 2021 All Blacks year:

Record: Played 15, won 12, lost 3; scored 720 points; against 273.

Best performance: The 57-22 victory over the Wallabies in Auckland. Ran in eight tries and decimated an Aussie outfit that had hung tough for a half but could not live with the pace of the New Zealand game over the run home.

Worst: The 29-20 loss to Ireland. Comprehensively outplayed by a team that was smarter, tougher and more skilful. Is it still an ambush when you know it’s coming?

Assessment: Flat-track bullies who struggled to dictate when the bigger boys on the block came their way. Won all the games (and trophies) they should have, and ran in a bucketload of tries in the process, but got the staggers against the Boks, Ireland and France. Appear to have issues in the tight five, at lineout, getting consistent gain-line against the top sides, skill execution against the rush defence and decision-making under pressure. Exposed in the air by the Boks, on the drive by the French and in the collisions by Ireland. Work required to become the team they aspire to be.

Overall grade: C+

What they did well: When quality front-foot ballwas achieved, no one could live with them. Still possess fabulous attackingweapons and instinctive players. Coped well with a trio of key defections (Aaron Smith, RichieMo’unga and Sam Whitelock) for the Aussie stuff, tucked away the trophies, built some quality depth and introduced a new wave of talent. Showed character, too, against Ireland and France to hang tough when things were going against them— and could have stolen both games with an ounce of luck.

Where they need to be better: It’s hard to shake the feeling the All Blacks tight five needs a rocket. The props appear to lack the all

Try of year: Sevu Reece’s pearler against Wales had it all. Quick thinking, pinpoint kick, brilliant hands, support lines, dazzling feet, and the man himself featuring three times.

Quote of the year: Who else? Dane Coles: ‘‘We’ve got to look ourselves in the eye and have those tough conversations we can’t shy away from. Those last two games haven’t been good enough.’’