Expect speed bumps on Covid road

TALKING POLITICS

Opinion: Excessive speed can be dangerous. By putting the Covid traffic light system in place while vaccination rates remain low among vulnerable groups, the government seems willing to run a few red lights.

Dates have been set for reopening Auckland without the new system being trialled, and before the vaccine certificate programme central to its safe operation is in place.

Similar haste has been evident at the enforcement end. Under pain of a $1000 fine for non-compliance, travelling New Zealanders will need to be either fully vaccinated or have undergone a negative Covid result within 72 hours before departure.

However, the Police enforcing the Covid rules do not (yet) need to abide by them, by being fully vaccinated themselves.

Such hurdles of course, are not insurmountable. Other countries have managed to put job mandates and vaccine passport systems in place, despite having a few implementation hiccups en route. So shall we.

Besides, after clamouring to re-open, hospitality outlets can hardly baulk if there are a few teething problems before the new system can work smoothly, for customers and staff alike.

The more significant concerns about moving ‘too far too fast’ arise from the persistently low vaccination rates among Ma¯ ori, and in some rural areas.

In justifying the shift to the traffic light system, PM Jacinda Ardern has claimed New Zealand is now one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.

However, the repeated citing of over 80 per cent full vaccination rates and over 91 per cent first dose figures are somewhat misleading. Those ratios apply only to the eligible 12+ population. If we measure the total population vulnerable to Covid, merely 69 per cent of New Zealanders are fully vaccinated, which means that our vaccination effort ranks only

20th among 39 OECD countries.

There are other signs of speed on the Covid highway.

The traffic light system is being implemented (a) when only 41 per cent of the total Ma¯ ori population are fully vaccinated (b) before we have started to vaccinate the under 12s, and (c) before a booster programme is in place to protect people with waning immunity levels.

Is the cumulative risk worth running at this point ?

Change seems to be being driven by a perceived political need to ensure that the relatively few Aucklanders who can afford a summer holiday in Queenstown will not have to spend a sad Christmas at home.

Bending to such pressures may prove costly.

As Otago University epidemiologist Michael Baker has pointed out, Singapore has a similar population and has managed to vaccinate 86 per cent of its total population. Yet during last week, Singapore was averaging 12 deaths a day from the disease.

Moreover, New Zealand is unlike other countries that have endured waves of Covid deaths and hospitalisations.

Thanks to the government’s previous exercise of caution, New Zealand has yet to experience its first major Covid onslaught.

Therefore, the initial Covid surge here could be overwhelming.

One has to wonder whether the risks are worth it, mainly in order that some people can spend their Christmas break out of town.

This summer, New Zealand appears to be set on over-taking at speed, without much evident concern about what may be coming up around the bend.