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Nats’ next big challenge is unity, not leadership

Can National put years of infighting behind it and present a united front? Tracy Watkins examines the odds and likely outcomes.

When National MPs head into a crucial caucus on Tuesday, the question consuming them this weekend may already be settled.

That question is former Air NZ CEO Chris Luxon, or one-time leader, Simon Bridges, though only one of them so far – Bridges – has formally thrown his hat in the ring for the party leadership.

Bridges and Luxon are the only realistic contenders for the role, after Judith Collins’ spectacular implosion on Wednesday and ousting by a confidence vote the next day, though star National performer, Chris Bishop, is jockeying for position.

Getting the leadership right will decide National’s fate at the next election. Yet the most important question may not be which man emerges as leader, but which of them can lock in the loyalty of a caucus that has been racked by division, disunity and internal brawling.

That’s why the big hope among National Party loyalists is that by Tuesday the argument will already be decided. The pressure is on to present a new leadership line up to the public without a split caucus vote. It would be a powerful symbol that, finally, National has indeed ‘‘got its s...t together’’, as more than one former MP has fervently expressed it, as they’ve watched the iron discipline they once possessed as a caucus crumble under a revolving leadership door.

The current political wisdom is that if Luxon wants the job, it’s his; he’s got the backing of political heavyweights like former prime minister Sir John Key and, just as crucially, represents a clean break from the past few miserable years of acrimony and infighting.

But Luxon’s inexperience will weigh on MPs; and may weigh equally on Luxon, with the knowledge that taking on the job when he’s not ready could kill his ambitions to be prime minister once and for all.

So Key will be an important factor in MPs’ consideration; they’ll be hoping that Luxon has some of his Midas touch and that Key’s support will help steer Luxon through a potentially shaky start as a rookie MP with few political hits under his belt. Unsurprisingly, MPs have been calling

Sir John to sound him out, though Key denies hitting the phones on Luxon’s behalf.

But Key is still a National party animal; no matter who wins – Bridges or Luxon – they will get his public backing.

So the biggest question is whether one of the contenders would be prepared to put aside his personal ambition and accept a

No 2 role – which is likely to be finance spokesman, a role that, in Government, is almost as powerful as the prime minister.

For Luxon, a stint as finance spokesman would put him on the same trajectory as Key, who made a name for himself as National’s finance spokesman before assuming the leadership. But taking that punt would assume that

National loses the next election, which is not a given in pandemic times, when the usual political cycle – nine years before there is a mood for change – can no longer be taken for granted.

So the horse-trading this weekend will be around whose ego will allow them to step back and accept the lesser role.

There is precedent. In fact, some of our most famous political marriages have come about in similar fashion – Clark and Cullen, Key and English, Ardern and Robertson.

The late Sir Michael Cullen never had any ambitions to be prime minister, but he did lead a faction that tried to topple Helen Clark. Bill English put his leadership ambitions aside after striking a deal with Key at his rival’s Parnell mansion ahead of the 2008 election. And Grant Robertson, who once sought the Labour Party leadership with Jacinda Ardern as his running mate, is now her right-hand man and finance minister.

That National desperately needs to ‘‘get its s..t together’’, however, is not in doubt.

At its lowest ebb in the polls, and with Act leader David Seymour running rampant over its traditional vote, National has been its own worst enemy.

There was no better demonstration of that than the timing of Collins’ late-night brain explosion. Her media conference demoting Bridges of his portfolios – widely read as utu for his undermining of her leadership – coincided with the passage of one of the most significant pieces of legislation in recent times, a bill limiting the freedoms of hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders.

But, as one frustrated former MP notes, Collins gave Labour a free pass. ‘‘They may not have had these guys on the ropes but they certainly had them on the run.’’

Collins’ departure has unleashed a surprising wave of hope among National party faithful – that the way is now cleared to put the party on the path to victory in 2023. With Collins at the helm the caucus had all but given up hope of winning, says one observer.

‘‘It gives them a genuine fresh start, and I feel like they’ve learned some lessons ... I think that there is that hope now that if

they do pull this off, and get their s...t together, there is genuine hope. Whereas I didn’t feel that way a year ago, to be quite blunt.’’

How the next few months play out will depend on who gets the leadership. A Luxon win would likely result in an immediate lift in the polls and a honeymoon period.

For Bridges, the road back to contention will be more of a grind, with the public needing convincing to give him a second look after making up their mind that they didn’t like him much first time round.

But there is an expectation that, whoever is at the helm, there will be a big reshuffle, with the caucus performers – Chris Bishop, Nicola Willis, Erica Stanford and Shane Reti – elevated to the front bench alongside Bridges and Luxon. There will also be pressure to deal with ‘‘the ACT problem’’ but old hands suggest the best tactic would be to do nothing.

A resurgent National Party would probably pick up 5 or 6 per cent off Act, with the focus being on picking off swing voters who flocked to Labour at the last election because of Covid, but who are less impressed by Labour’s subsequent handling of lockdowns and ICU, and other policies being pushed through by ministers.

‘‘Most of Act’s vote is National. If they get their s .... t together, it’ll go back to National. And as long as they’re about 10 per cent, that’s actually good for National, it gets them across the line. So ignore them.’’

The more fertile hunting ground was ‘‘middle New Zealand’’, which had overwhelmingly backed Labour last time.

‘‘I think there’s a lot of middle New Zealanders that are feeling that the gloss has come off the Government, particularly in Auckland. But they have felt they haven’t got an alternative – Act is a step too far for them anyway. Some of them have been quite angry with me about that.

‘‘And I mean if it came to you standing in the booth tomorrow and ticking a box, would you really go National’s got its s...t together. And their leader is someone I want to see as prime minister?’’

The answer to that is going to have to be yes for National to have a chance in 2023.

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2021-11-28T08:00:00.0000000Z

2021-11-28T08:00:00.0000000Z

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