Cases to peak in March

Taranaki health bosses are predicting Omicron will get out of control in the region in February and peak at the start of March, when an estimated 370 cases of the Covid-19 variant will be reported each day.

The forecast, based on modelling carried out by the Taranaki District Health Board, came as a second positive Covid case was identified in the region yesterday, with a total of 35 close contacts.

Taranaki DHB medical officer of health Dr Jonathan Jarman said they had carried out initial modelling for Taranaki based on Technical Advisory Services (TAS) assumptions. TAS has modelled projections for all DHBS.

It predicts nearly 6000 cases in the Hawke’s Bay region in

March, and more than 18,500 over 12 months.

However, Jarman said Taranaki DHB’S modelling showed an optimistic scenario.

‘‘Other models have predicted a higher number of cases and hospitalisations. We believe that an optimistic scenario is a better fit for Taranaki.’’

It is assumed Taranaki will see a dramatic increase in Omicron from the beginning of February, and the epidemic will peak at the start of March, with 370 reported cases per day, Jarman said.

‘‘The two worst months will be February and March, with a total of 3289 cases reported in

February and 3220 cases reported in March.

‘‘The number of cases is predicted to fall during March and then reach a plateau of around 500 cases per month until October, when it starts to fall even further.’’

The modelling expects twice as many Māori to be infected than non-māori.

‘‘It also shows 96 people will need to be hospitalised in February, 91 in March, two people will need ICU care in February and three in March.’’

However, trying to predict Omicron was a very uncertain science, Jarman said.

‘‘The model does not include Delta, which is still out there. Delta is a more severe illness and more likely to put people in hospital. A large proportion of patients in ICU in Australia are still people with Delta infection.’’

Meanwhile, yesterday saw a second positive case in the region linked to the January Omicron cluster.

The person is a household contact of the case reported on Wednesday, who was on the same flight as an infected Air NZ attendant linked to a Nelson family.

The new case was notified after the Ministry of Health’s reporting deadline and will be included in the case count today.

‘‘Both positive cases have been isolating at home and receiving support from our Care in the Community team via their GP and Tui Ora,’’ TDHB Covid-19 response manager Gillian Campbell said.

Taranaki’s Public Health Unit interviewed the pair and there were no new locations of interest in the region.

Campbell confirmed the 35 people who had been identified as close contacts associated with the flights in and out of New Plymouth were isolating and being tested.

Campbell warned there could be cases in Taranaki linked to the Soundsplash music festival at Mystery Creek in Waikato.

Five Aucklanders have tested positive for Covid-19 after attending the festival in

Hamilton over the weekend, with one of the cases the Omicron variant.

‘‘We’ve had a number of local teenagers access our testing centres today and we’re asking people who went to the event to be extra vigilant about any symptoms and to get a test immediately if they feel unwell,’’ Campbell said.