More than 720 a day may catch Omicron across region

As many as 65,000 people in the Greater Wellington region could contract Omicron over a threemonth period – or more than 720 a day, according to modelling from the Capital & Coast and Hutt Valley district health boards.

Separate projections for Hawke’s Bay suggest that close to 19,000 people could be infected over the next year, with a peak of nearly 6000 cases in March.

The estimates come as DHBs around the country try to prepare for an expected surge in Covid infections as the Omicron variant circulates in the community.

The more infectious Omicron variant has been detected in Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Palmerston North, and Nelson-Tasman, with 90 confirmed or suspected cases so far, including 34 which were newly confirmed yesterday.

The Covid-positive person who visited Wellington Airport on

Wednesday was yesterday confirmed to have the Delta variant, not Omicron.

There were no new cases of Covid-19 reported in Wellington yesterday, though there were eight new cases in Hawke’s Bay, all linked to the known Hastings Delta cluster, talking the region’s total to 23.

Modelling by the two DHBs in the Wellington region showed a level of infection that would ‘‘significantly displace’’ patient treatment services in the region’s hospitals, joint DHB chief executive Fionnagh Dougan said.

‘‘As we plan, we are looking at every opportunity to mitigate this impact,’’ she said. But because the symptoms of the Omicron variant tended to be milder than previous strains, the need for hospital and ICU care would be low in relation to overall cases, she said.

The vast majority – 64,330 – are expected to be able to manage their symptoms at home or in the community. But the data predicted 470 people would need hospital care, peaking at 45 Omicron cases in hospital on a single day. A total of 14 would be sick enough to require intensive care, peaking at two ICU cases on one day. The numbers are slightly rosier if vaccination uptake increases – which would see just under 60,000 cases and 300 needing hospital care in the same period.

Hawke’s Bay District Health Board chief executive officer Keriana Brooking said in a letter to staff that the modelling suggested Māori will be affected by Omicron ‘‘substantially more than Pacific or other ethnicities’’.