NZ bystander to Ukraine conflict

If Russian President Vladimir Putin pulls the trigger on an invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has its origins in the Cold War could be running red-hot.

The United States and much of the West, including Australia, are poised to take immediate action: sanctions against Russia and Putin himself, arms shipments inbound for Ukraine, help with the country’s cyber defence.

It’s unlikely New Zealand will take direct action against Russia – not least because it can’t.

Echoes of the Cold War

The escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the involvement of the United States and Nato security alliance countries, has echoes of the Cold War – a decades-long contest between the Russian-led Soviet Union and the US, that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

As with the indirect conflicts of that era, the US and much of Europe are battling Russia through diplomacy, military support and posturing to secure their interests in another country.

In this case, it is Ukraine, an Eastern European country that shares borders with Russia, Poland, Belarus and Romania.

Ukraine gained independence in 1991 at the collapse of the Soviet Union and since the ‘‘Orange Revolution’’ of 2014 has been led by a pro-European government which has in recent years made efforts to join Nato.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation comprises the US, Canada, 27 European nations, and Turkey, and the security alliance opposed the Soviet Union during the Cold War and Russia since.

The prospect of Ukraine developing closer ties and a military linked in with the West has concerned Russia.

Russia has sent an estimated 100,000 troops to its border with Ukraine, the latest attempt to apply pressure on it. Russia has also demanded that Nato never accept Ukraine as a member, and does not place weapons and troops in the country.

How does Aotearoa fit in?

New Zealand is not a member of Nato, though the security alliance does count New Zealand as one of its closest ‘‘global partners’’, in part due to New Zealand troops fighting alongside Nato forces in Afghanistan.

‘‘These are fellow democratic partners, and on this sort of issue we have a pretty strong unity of interest,’’ said Dr Robert Ayson, a professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University. Ayson said an invasion would pose a ‘‘serious

challenge’’ to the international system that New Zealand backed, particularly to a fundamental rule of this system: that states should not invade other states.

How might the New Zealand Government respond?

The United States and Nato countries are unlikely to directly enter armed conflict with Russia over an invasion of Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden has ruled out deploying US troops to Ukraine in response to an invasion.

For the US, Nato countries, and Australia, sanctions are on the table. Biden on Wednesday said he would consider sanctions against Putin specifically, and both the US and Britain have been considering cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global payment system as retaliation.

But New Zealand cannot follow these countries in applying its own sanctions on Russia or Russian officials.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern indicated the Government may look to retaliate through measures including limiting political engagement, or the ability for Russian officials to travel into New Zealand – measures which don’t amount to sanctions.

New Zealand law only allows sanctions to be placed in line with United Nations sanctions, and any proposed UN sanction against Russia is certain to be vetoed by the country itself.

The Government has no appetite to create a new law allowing ‘‘autonomous sanctions’’, and has twice cast aside proposed laws that would do this.

WHAT PUTIN REALLY FEARS

OPINION, PAGE 15