What teams need in final round

Highlanders are among the five teams separated by three points fighting for the last two quarterfinal spots. It’s complicated, but here’s what you need to know.

It’s the last round of Super Rugby Pacific and five teams separated by just three points are competing for the last two spots in next weekend’s quarterfinals.

Two things are certain: the Chiefs are guaranteed to finish first and the rest of the top six in the final standings will include the Crusaders, the Blues, the Brumbies, the Hurricanes and the Waratahs.

The order of the sides from second to fifth will be decided, but most interest will be focused on which teams claim seventh and eighth to complete the playoff lineup.

Nothing is certain, and bonus points are likely to be significant when the equation will only become clearer with each completed match.

The Reds and the Highlanders occupy seventh and eighth. To seal their place in the eight, they have tough away fixtures against the Fijian Drua and the Blues respectively.

Beneath them are the Western Force, the Drua and the Melbourne Rebels, who need to win and hope other results work to their benefit.

Back at the top, the Hurricanes still have an outside chance of making the top four – and earn hosting rights for a quarterfinal – but are likely to finish fifth after successive defeats to the Chiefs and Blues.

Stuff has broken down the playoff picture below for all 11 teams still in the mix.

Each side will be aiming to finish as high as possible because it’s crucial for home advantage throughout the playoffs.

The sides from first to fourth will host the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, the two top-ranked teams will be hosts. In the final, the topranked team will play at home.

Remember, there are four competition points for a win, two for a draw if teams can’t be separated after golden point, and bonus points are awarded for losing by seven points or fewer, or for scoring three tries or more than the opposition.

If teams are level on competition points, the first deciding factor is the team with the most wins, then points difference, then most tries, then tries for and against.

After that, it’s the coin toss.

1st: Chiefs (played 13, won 12, lost 1; 54 points, points difference +202) Final match: Force (A)

Job done for Clayton McMillan’s Chiefs. They will finish first and host any match (or matches) they have in the playoffs. Their quarterfinal will be against the team which claims eighth.

2nd: Crusaders (played 13, won 10, lost 3; 47 points, points difference +180) Final match: Hurricanes (A)

The Crusaders are likely to finish second but still need one competition point to be safe. That won’t be easy against the Hurricanes in the capital on Saturday night, but they are still five points clear of the Blues in third and have a superior points differential (+33). Scott Robertson’s reigning champions are in form, having won four on the bounce, and a major stumble doesn’t seem likely.

3rd: Blues (played 13, won 9, lost 4; 42 points, points difference +147)

Final match: Highlanders (H)

The Blues, who finished first last year before a painful defeat in the Eden Park final, will clinch third if they beat the playoff-chasing Highlanders, but a defeat might open the door for the Brumbies to leapfrog them. The leading Aussie team play the Rebels straight after their Friday night fixture.

If the Rebels stun the Brumbies, the Blues will have finished third, whatever their result is against the Highlanders. Overhauling the Crusaders in second should be beyond them, but they’re guaranteed a top-four finish.

4th: Brumbies (played 13, won 9, lost 4; 41 points, points difference +65) Final match: Rebels (H)

The Brumbies need two competition points from their final match at home against the Rebels to secure a top-four finish. They would achieve that by avoiding defeat in Canberra on Friday night.

If the Blues, who they trail by one point, slip up against the Highlanders, the Brumbies would finish third if they beat the Rebels. A loss could give the Hurricanes a shot of sneaking into the top four at their expense.

5th: Hurricanes (played 13, won 8, lost 5; 37 points, points difference +141) Final match: Crusaders (H)

The Hurricanes will know if their topfour chances are alive when they kick off against the Crusaders on Saturday night. They need a favour from the Rebels, who will have to win against the Brumbies tomorrow night. If that happens, the Hurricanes could make the top four if they beat the Crusaders in Wellington. Bonus points might come into the equation. However, if the Brumbies avoid defeat, the Canes will be fifth and on the road in the first week of the playoffs to face whoever finishes fourth.

6th: Waratahs (played 13, won 6, lost 7; 31 points, points difference -12) Final match: Moana Pasifika (H)

The Waratahs are certain to finish sixth and will be away to whoever comes third in the quarterfinals.

7th: Reds (played 13, won 5, lost 8; 24 points, points difference -36) Final match: Fijian Drua (A)

If the Reds win in Suva, they make the playoffs and finish seventh for the second successive season. Simple. If they don’t, however, the Queenlanders might drop out of the top eight. They could still make the playoffs if they lose but would need results elsewhere to go their way. The Drua, who trail them by three points, could finish above them with a win, although bonus points could be crucial. Essentially, their clash looks like a quarterfinal playoff.

8th: Highlanders (played 13, won 5, lost 8; 23 points, points difference -90) Final match: Blues (A)

The Highlanders saved their season with two late wins over the Rebels and the Reds in Dunedin. Another victory over the Blues should guarantee a quarterfinal place again after sneaking into last season’s playoffs in eighth. Their fate is in their hands. They have a tough fixture, yes, but a bonus-point win in Auckland on Friday night would be enough. If they don’t win, however, they have a nervous weekend of waiting to see if any of the sides below can collect enough competition points to climb above them. It is possible, but it would be remarkably fortunate if the Highlanders lost and still made the eight.

9th: Western Force (played 13, won 5, lost 8; 22 points, points difference -124) Final match: Chiefs (H)

The Force host the Chiefs in the round’s final match in Perth. They will have the benefit of knowing what their situation is at kick-off on Saturday night. If the Reds and the Highlanders have won, their playoff hopes should be finished. If either were to lose, the door would be open. The Drua and the Rebels’ results might complicate the equation, too. Still, the Force are likely to need a win against the competition leaders to make the eight.

They trail the Reds and the Highlanders by two points and one point respectively.

10th: Fijian Drua (played 13, won 5, lost 8; 21 points, points difference -146) Final match: Reds (H)

The Drua are still in the fight and could crack the top eight if they beat the Reds at home – where they have lost only once this year against the Blues – but might need results elsewhere to improve their prospects. Trailing the Reds by three points means bonus points could be vital in the final standings. A bonuspoint victory over the Reds, without the Queenslanders collecting any bonus point, could be enough. It’s nonetheless complicated, although a defeat would end the Drua’s campaign. They trail the Highlanders in eighth by two points and have an inferior points differential (-56).

11th: Rebels (played 13, won 4, lost 9; 21 points, points difference -62) Final match: Brumbies (A)

The Rebels are at a significant disadvantage because they have won one less match than the four sides above them, who have all won five. That’s crucial because the first deciding factor if teams are level on competition points is most wins. Trailing eighth by two points, they have to beat the Brumbies in Canberra to have any chance. Their best hope, if they win, is that the Reds defeat the Drua and the Highlanders and Force both lose. That scenario is possible, but it would be incredible to see the Rebels make the quarterfinals after starting the final round second from bottom.

12th: Moana Pasifika (played 13, won 0, lost 13; 4 points, points difference -265)

Final match: Waratahs (A) Moana Pasifika’s miserable season is nearing an end, with their playoff chances long gone. They face the Waratahs in Sydney in the final round when they will be targeting a first win of the campaign.