A GENERATIONAL SHIFT FOR NATIONAL

After days of frantically working the phones, Simon Bridges withdrew from the National Party leadership race a little more than an hour before a caucus vote was scheduled. A new National Party leader emerged in the shape of Christopher Luxon, 51, former Air NZ CEO, Unilever executive and current MP for Botany.

It is the fastest any MP has gone from being elected to Parliament for a major party to being an elected party leader. This parliamentary inexperience was, Luxon said, an advantage in his book as he stated matter-of-factly that ‘‘the country is heading the wrong way’’.

His election alongside Wellington-based MP and mother of four Nicola Willis, a former John Key and Fonterra staffer, marks a generational shift in the party.

Now will be the big job of healing the divisions created by the past two years.

In an assured and mostly confident performance, Luxon looked every bit the ex-CEO, talking about teams, direction, culture and high performance.

The new leader emphasised that it was a ‘‘new National’’ and ‘‘national National Party’’ and did hit several key themes: First was that the Government was all speech and no delivery, and that New Zealand has a choice between ‘‘mediocrity’’ or a more ‘‘aspirational and prosperous future’’. He also hit on cost-ofliving. Growing the economy and getting productivity going were the key things, he said.

All good stuff and on point for a National leader. But he was noticeably uncomfortable when being questioned about Ma¯ ori representation and Three Waters.

He would not yet be drawn on who would be appointed to caucus or in what positions, which will be his first big internal test.

The first and most pressing issue facing Luxon and Willis now is National’s woeful polling, which has not broken through 30 per cent since the election, where the party only managed to get 25.8 per cent of the vote.

The truth is that no one knows how a person is going to go as leader of the Opposition until they actually do the job. Todd Muller came with a lot of hype and gave a good first speech, but the job quickly dragged him down to the point where he couldn’t cope with it in less than two months.

Obviously that is up one extreme end of the spectrum. At the other end is that the leader impresses out of the blocks and heads upwards from there. Luxon is a quick study, but he has a steep learning curve ahead.

In order to restore National’s polling fortunes the party needs to be viewed as a realistic alternative to Labour by the many voters it lost at the last election.

A key bit of political capital that was squandered by National during last year’s ructions was its reputation as the better economic manager than Labour. National has to rebuild that brand.

It also needs to win back the middle New Zealand voters who supported the Key-English National Party, which built a broad base of support across gender and made crucial gains for National into various ethnic communities.

But the Key-English comparisons should not be stretched. Just as there was no new Richie McCaw and no new Shane Warne no matter how many years the All Blacks and Australian cricket team wasted trying to find one, so also will there be no new Key.

In part, Luxon starts from a position of weakness. He is up against a still very popular prime minister in Jacinda Ardern, and Labour runs a formidable machine. National is also starting with few resources and a significantly smaller caucus that still looks very male, pale and stale.

Luxon will also need a new narrative the National caucus can rally behind. In all likelihood a series of big ‘headland’ speeches will be required to lay out exactly who he is, where he is coming from and what he wishes to accomplish.

Luxon will also have his personal life probed in far more detail than any job previously held. He is a committed Christian and is conservative on certain personal matters. However, he proved while running Air NZ that holding personal views and exercising high office can coexist.

But it is on the economy where Luxon will have to make his biggest play. In the end, that is what a lot of people vote on.

Next year promises to be a challenging one economically. It is not that the wheels will suddenly fall off the economy, but it will be tougher. Inflation is expected to rise further and what state Auckland is in when it emerges from lockdown is anyone’s guess. Stalled migration will start to bite.

Luxon will have to start showing that he is a leader for the times and can compete with Ardern. For the first time since before the pandemic, she might have a challenge on her hands.