What’s at stake for NZ?

If Russian President Vladimir Putin triggers an invasion of Ukraine, a conflict that has its origins in the Cold War could be running red-hot.

The United States and much of the West, including Australia, are poised to take immediate action: sanctions against Russia and Putin himself, arms shipments in-bound for Ukraine, help with the country’s cyber defence.

Could New Zealand be drawn into this faraway conflict? It’s unlikely New Zealand will take direct action against Russia – if only because it can’t.

Echoes of the Cold War

The escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the involvement of the United States and NATO security alliance countries, has echoes of the Cold War – a decades-long contest between the Russian-led Soviet Union and United States, that ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

As with the indirect conflicts of that era, the United States and much of Europe and are battling Russia through diplomacy, military support, posturing, and possible war, to secure their interests in another country.

In this case, it’s Ukraine, a developing Eastern European country which neighbours Russia, Poland, Belarus and Romania, the second-largest country in Europe by land mass (after Russia) with a population of 43 million.

Ukraine gained independence in 1991 at the collapse of the Soviet Union and, after a bout of demonstrations and civil unrest in 2013-14, a revolution in the country produced a pro-Western government which has in recent years made efforts to join Nato.

Nato, (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), is a security alliance made up of the United States, Canada, 27 European nations, and Turkey. It was a major tool used by its member countries to oppose the Soviet Union during the Cold War, and Russia since.

The prospect of Ukraine developing closer ties and a military linked-in with the West has concerned Russia.

The amassing of an estimated 100,000 troops at its border is only the latest action to apply pressure on Ukraine, and alongside this Russia has made demands including that Nato never accepts Ukraine as a member, and does not place weapons and troops in the country.

How does New Zealand fit in?

New Zealand is not a member of Nato, though the security alliance does count New Zealand as one of its closest ‘‘global partners’’, in part due to New Zealand troops spending years fighting alongside Nato forces in Afghanistan.

‘‘These are fellow democratic partners, and on this sort of issue we have a pretty strong unity of interest,’’ Dr Robert Ayson, a professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University said.

He said an invasion would pose a ‘‘serious challenge’’ to the international system that New Zealand backed, particularly to a fundamental rule of this system: that states should not invade other states.

And New Zealand is not without its own concerns about Russian hostility.

In 2018, the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) accused the Russian government of conducting four malicious cyberattacks abroad.

While the attacks did not target New Zealand institutions, the GCSB said there was ‘‘a range of activity in New Zealand that contains indicators which can be linked to Russian state actors’’.

How might the Government respond?

The United States and Nato countries are unlikely to directly enter armed conflict with Russia over an invasion of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has ruled out deploying US troops to Ukraine in response to an invasion.

For the US, Nato countries and Australia, sanctions are on the table.

Biden on Wednesday said he would consider sanctions against Putin specifically, and both the US and Britain have been considering cutting Russia out of the SWIFT global payment system as retaliation.

But New Zealand cannot follow these countries in applying its own sanctions on Russia or Russian officials.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern indicated the Government may look to retaliate though measures including limiting political engagement, or the ability for Russian officials to travel into New Zealand – measures which don’t amount to sanctions.

New Zealand law only allows sanctions to be placed in line with United Nations sanctions, and any proposed UN sanction against Russia is likely to be vetoed by the country itself.

The Government has no appetite to create a new law allowing ‘‘autonomous sanctions’’, and has twice cast aside proposed laws that would do this.