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Balance of power has shifted to the north

Paul Cully

Scott Robertson was an excellent New Zealand under-20s coach, but the loss he suffered in the pool stages of the World Rugby U20 Championship in 2016 was a big pointer to the problems coming down the line for the All Blacks.

Under Robertson, the Baby All Blacks lost 33-24 to Ireland in Manchester, and failed to qualify for the semifinals of the annual tournament.

Fast forward five years later, and three of the players in that Ireland under-20s starting XV (James Ryan, Andrew Porter and Hugo Keenan) had graduated to the test arena, where they would again beat the All Blacks.

Only one player from the starting NZ under-20s side – Jordie Barrett – was in the All Blacks starting side that lost to Ireland in Dublin a few weeks ago.

The power shift to the North has been clearly signposted for at least the past five years, and it’s arguably a bigger factor than the identity of the All Blacks coach.

For the record, Robertson won the 2015 edition of the under-20s tournament, and Craig Philpott led the team to success in 2017.

But since 2013, England have won the competition three times (and made the final another three times), and France have won it twice. In 2018-2019, New Zealand’s best finish was fourth.

What we have seen on European rugby fields over the past few weeks is a combination of many, many factors. But it is undeniable that in terms of player development, the Six Nations sides have caught up with New Zealand, or likely overtaken them. And as that is a structural change, it isn’t likely to go away any time soon.

That 2016 loss to Ireland would have seemed almost unfathomable in the early years of the under-20s tournament.

From 2008-2011, New Zealand won four titles on the bounce, and coaches Dave Rennie, Russell Hilton-Jones and Mark Anscombe all had 100 per cent records.

But, from 2012 onwards, things became a lot tougher. Robertson’s record from 2015-2016 is very strong, with just one loss, but that defeat to Ireland showed one thing: Not even ‘Razor’ can stop the rest of the world from getting better.

France and England, in particular, have poured time and money into their under-20s programs and women’s rugby, as the Black Ferns have just found out.

Their club systems are pouring out large numbers of ‘professionalised’ young players with a high degree of tactical and technical knowledge, as well as being well conditioned.

Look at the England team that beat South Africa at Twickenham last weekend. The No 10 Marcus Smith is 22, and the fullback Freddie Steward is just 20. There is a sense that New Zealand has fallen back a step. A formalised Super Rugby under-20s competition did not begin until this season, and there is no Rugby Championship under-20s competition to rival the Six Nations under-20s tournament that primes European players.

The All Blacks were disappointing in Dublin and Paris, there is no questioning that. Foster and his coaches must take accountability, particularly the poor starts to each game.

But what really makes good test teams? It’s the structures and systems that sit beneath them, driven by a relentless determination at the institutional level not to take success for granted.

Has New Zealand rugby, in its entirety, got that right over the past 5-10 years? That’s the big, uncomfortable question that should sit alongside the Foster v Robertson debate.

It is undeniable that in terms of player development, the Six Nations sides have caught up with New Zealand, or likely overtaken them.

Sport

en-nz

2021-11-27T08:00:00.0000000Z

2021-11-27T08:00:00.0000000Z

https://stuff.pressreader.com/article/282501481902007

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